Betting · First-Round Leader
FIRST-ROUND LEADER
FRL is the wave market. Only half the field plays each side of the draw, and the two halves do not always get the same weather. Below: the round-1 AM/PM split for TOUR Championship, each player's skill and tee time, and the real 9-book FRL market with the best posted price on every runner and how far it sits above the field median. The wave split is a description of the draw and the price gap is a comparison of two real prices — neither is a recommendation, and this site publishes no measured edge for the FRL market.
Real 9-book FRL market. Best is the top price across books;
Price improv. vs median is
1/median − 1/best in implied-probability points — how much cheaper the same bet is at the best book than at the consensus price. Prices only: no model is involved in that number and it is not a claim the bet is worth making.
Model FRL% and
Fair are the Golf King
projection, shown beside the market for reference. The FRL market carries real overround (~+19.6% across the best prices), so a de-vigged bet at even the best price is usually still negative EV — that figure is published on
Shop the Line. The AM/PM split is the draw as it stands, currently heavier on the
PM side by model FRL probability mass; whether the conditions actually differ is a weather question, not a model output.
Weather & Wave → ·
Price Finder →