The Model · Performance
MODEL CALIBRATION
An honest scoreboard for the model. Across 153 past tournaments and 18,910 player-events, we compare what the model said would happen to what actually did. A trustworthy model is calibrated: the players it gives 15% to make the top 10 should hit close to 15% of the time. We don't claim to beat the closing line — we show you the numbers are real.
153
Events Analyzed
PGA, 2023–2025
18,910
Player-Events
graded vs result
0.9 pts
Avg Calibration Error
predicted vs actual
Verdict: the model is calibrated — predicted and actual rates track within ~0.9 points.
Each row is a probability band:
Predicted is the model's average number for players in that band,
Actual is how often it actually happened, over
n player-events. Close columns = a calibrated model. Built on the same strokes-gained model that powers every page.
Methodology →